ELLENTHAL: The stats behind Malmö’s winning streak

Heading into their game against Frölunda on February 16th, Malmö sat in last place in the SHL, and even with games in hand, were very much staring down the possibility of participating in the Play Out series at the end of the season. Now, seven straight wins later, Malmö not only has avoided relegation conversation, but they also sit comfortably in an åttondelsfinal spot.

Saturday’s come-from-behind shootout win over Färjestad made it 20 out of a possible 21 standing points for Malmö, a stretch that also includes two victories over Frölunda, another against Luleå, and them taking care of business against teams at the bottom of the standings. It’s the kind of run that, until this point, none of the bottom teams had put together, something that has added both constant intrigue and dread to the race at the bottom this season.

Malmö has clearly separated themselves from the pack. How do the underlying numbers look over this seven game winning streak? Are there tangible and sustainable signs of progress compared to the team from the first 37 games of the season?

---

The short answer to the question of whether Malmö looks like a fundamentally improved team is: no, not really. Here’s a summary view of all parts of their game, comparing the 14th-place team from the first 37 games to the hottest team in the league over the last seven:

Malmö is winning games lately at even strength. While their power play and penalty kill results have actually been a bit worse recently, they’re out-scoring the opposition 17-8 at 5v5 the last seven games.

This turnaround at 5v5 looks first and foremost to be on the strength of improved shooting and save percentages. If you look at a moving average of these metrics over the course of the season, Malmö’s shooting percentage is the highest it’s been all season (black line), while the save percentage is close to a season high (red line):

Meanwhile, the turnaround has little to nothing to do with controlling play at a better clip. Both their Corsi% and Fenwick% have come in slightly beneath where they had been over the first 37 games. Perhaps this is partially due to the score effects that come along with playing with a lead more frequently, but regardless, there is no discernible difference in the underlying shot metrics.

All situations expected goals from Better Than A Monkey tell a similar story. Take shot quality into account, and Malmö is still earning just 45.6 percent of expected goals over their seven game winning streak, which is lower than their season average. Just once in their seven wins have they achieved an xGF percentage over 50 -- at Oskarshamn on February 18th. (It’s also the only game in the streak they’ve been over 50 percent in Corsi% or Fenwick%.)

A friendlier way of putting things for Malmö is they’ve been opportunistic offensively (scoring 25 goals on 15.3 expected goals) and Oscar Alsenfelt has played like one of the best goalies in the league, which he is (13 goals against on 18.2 expected goals).

Oscar Alsenfelt. Foto: Fredrik Karlsson / Bildbyrån

---

Full marks to Malmö for putting this winning streak together, which has included some tight and come-from-behind victories. At no point have teams like HV71, Linköping, or Brynäs been able to string wins together.

It’s probably a group that’s feeling good about itself and thinking it can make some noise in the playoffs. With Alsenfelt in net, they always have the potential to be a tough out in a short series, but my analysis of the underlying numbers is this is not a team that has elevated its game in a meaningful or sustainable way of late. Simply avoiding the stress and risk of going out at the end of the season will have to be a nice enough consolation prize.